AFL · ROUND 17 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v North Melbourne
Sun 5 Jul 2026, 4:10pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 7
PA to win, 61% chance
PA 61%39% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 21
HIT Actual margin 21 · 14.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 28.7 | 24.5 to 32.9 | 18.0 to 39.5 | 97% | 89% | 72% | 41% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 23.7 | 19.8 to 27.6 | 13.8 to 33.6 | 96% | 81% | 49% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 21.0 | 17.3 to 24.7 | 11.6 to 30.4 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 20.9 | 17.3 to 24.6 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 19.5 | 16.0 to 23.1 | 10.4 to 28.7 | 82% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 19.4 | 15.8 to 22.9 | 10.3 to 28.4 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.7 | 8.6 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.5 | 8.4 to 25.7 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPL | 15.5 | 12.3 to 18.8 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 50% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 14.4 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.5 | 47% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 13.9 | 10.8 to 17.0 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 13.7 | 10.7 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.0 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | WL | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPR | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | FB | 10.6 | 7.9 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.3 | 2.7 to 16.5 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 8.6 | 6.1 to 11.2 | 2.1 to 15.2 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 7.2 | 4.8 to 9.6 | 1.1 to 13.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 30.5 | 26.2 to 34.8 | 19.4 to 41.5 | 98% | 92% | 80% | 55% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 40.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 26.5 | 22.5 to 30.6 | 16.1 to 36.9 | 95% | 85% | 60% | 25% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 25.9 | 21.9 to 29.9 | 15.6 to 36.2 | 94% | 82% | 56% | 21% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 25.1 | 21.1 to 29.0 | 14.9 to 35.2 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 21.4 | 17.7 to 25.0 | 11.9 to 30.8 | 88% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 20.5 | 16.9 to 24.1 | 11.2 to 29.8 | 85% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 19.5 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.4 to 28.6 | 82% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HFFL | 19.5 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.4 to 28.6 | 82% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 17.0 | 13.7 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 16.8 | 13.5 to 20.2 | 8.3 to 25.4 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.4 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.1 | 7.4 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Josh Goater | HBFL | 15.6 | 12.3 to 18.8 | 7.3 to 23.9 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 14.6 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.5 to 22.6 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 13.1 | 10.0 to 16.1 | 5.3 to 20.8 | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 12.6 | 9.7 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | HFFR | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 9.6 | 7.0 to 12.3 | 2.8 to 16.5 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 8.1 | 5.6 to 10.6 | 1.7 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |