AFL · ROUND 17 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v North Melbourne
Sun 5 Jul 2026, 4:10pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 7
PA to win, 61% chance
PA 61%39% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 21
HIT Actual margin 21 · 14.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 84% | 70% | 58% | 41% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 48% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Willem Drew | R | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 40% | 26% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 62% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 79 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Miles Bergman | BPL | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Jack Lukosius | WL | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 21 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Josh Lai | BPR | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | FB | 46 | 32 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 45 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 45 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 108 | 91 to 124 | 67 to 148 | 93% | 87% | 75% | 62% | 48% | outside our 90% range: 154 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 92 | 77 to 108 | 53 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 38% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 37% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 92 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 74% | 56% | 38% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 91 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HFFL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 110 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 61 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Josh Goater | HBFL | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Jacob Konstanty | HFFR | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 51 | 38 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 49 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 41 | 28 to 54 | 8 to 74 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |