AFL · ROUND 17 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v North Melbourne
Sun 5 Jul 2026, 4:10pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 7
PA to win, 61% chance
PA 61%39% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 21
HIT Actual margin 21 · 14.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 2.6 | 1.7 to 3.5 | 0.4 to 4.8 | 84% | 59% | 37% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 57% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | WL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Larkey | FF | 2.1 | 1.2 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 76% | 53% | 30% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 57% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Goater | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |