AFL · ROUND 17 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v North Melbourne
Sun 5 Jul 2026, 4:10pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 7
PA to win, 61% chance
PA 61%39% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 21
HIT Actual margin 21 · 14.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 28.7 / inside our 50% range: 26.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 104 / inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 23.7 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 98 / inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 21.0 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 77 / inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 20.9 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 19.5 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Willem Drew | R | 19.4 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 85 / inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 17.3 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 17.1 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 78 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Miles Bergman | BPL | 15.5 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 67 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 14.4 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.1 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 13.9 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 55 / inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 13.7 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 84 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 13.3 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 13.1 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 59 / outside our 90% range: 21 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 12.7 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 6.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Jack Lukosius | WL | 12.2 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Josh Lai | BPR | 11.9 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | FB | 10.6 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 46 / inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 10.1 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 50 / inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 9.9 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 53 / inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 9.6 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 45 / inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 8.6 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.2 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 7.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 45 / inside our 90% range: 17 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 30.5 / inside our 90% range: 40.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 4.8 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 108 / outside our 90% range: 154 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 26.5 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 92 / inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 25.9 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.0 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 91 / inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 25.1 / inside our 90% range: 31.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 5.4 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 92 / inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 21.4 / inside our 90% range: 28.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 20.5 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 76 / inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 19.5 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 72 / inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HFFL | 19.5 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 75 / inside our 90% range: 54 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 18.4 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 72 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 17.0 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 16.8 / inside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 16.0 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 15.8 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 92 / inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Josh Goater | HBFL | 15.6 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 14.6 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 63 / inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 13.1 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 55 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 12.6 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 11.8 / outside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 51 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 11.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Jacob Konstanty | HFFR | 10.8 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 52 / inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 9.6 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 58 / inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 9.2 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 8.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 41 / inside our 90% range: 18 |