AFL · ROUND 17 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v North Melbourne
Sun 5 Jul 2026, 4:10pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 7
PA to win, 61% chance
PA 61%39% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 21
HIT Actual margin 21 · 14.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem Drew | R | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.8 to 9.9 | 85% | 73% | 61% | 49% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.9 to 8.2 | 69% | 52% | 37% | 24% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 64% | 47% | 32% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 64% | 47% | 32% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 61% | 44% | 25% | 14% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 42% | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 19% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 81% | 69% | 56% | 45% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 5.4 | 3.7 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.4 | 80% | 68% | 56% | 43% | 30% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 5.2 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 77% | 62% | 45% | 31% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 73% | 56% | 40% | 27% | 19% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 43% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 42% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Goater | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 19% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |