AFL · ROUND 17 · MCG
Richmond v Carlton
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 35
CAR to win, 90% chance
RIC 10%90% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 2
HIT Actual margin 2 · 32.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | CHB | 24.3 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 92 / inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 23.5 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Jack Ross | R | 23.0 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.8 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 86 / outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 20.7 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 77 / inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 18.7 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 18.3 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Tom Brown | BPR | 17.8 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Sam Cumming | HFFL | 17.7 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 46 |
| James Trezise | WR | 17.3 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 17.2 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.7 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 16.2 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 15.4 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.6 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 66 / outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 14.8 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 14.6 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 59 / inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | INT | 14.0 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Taj Hotton | RR | 13.4 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 12.7 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 55 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Rhyan Mansell | INT | 12.0 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Kye Annand | INT | 10.9 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 9.8 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 9.0 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 44 / inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 8.2 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.7 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 45 / inside our 90% range: 71 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 30.4 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 99 / inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 28.1 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 93 / inside our 50% range: 89 |
| George Hewett | INT | 24.8 / inside our 50% range: 26.0 | 0.7 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.7 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 84 / inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 24.0 / inside our 90% range: 29.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Nic Newman | INT | 23.4 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.9 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 87 / inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 22.0 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 20.6 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 78 / inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 20.6 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 76 / inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 20.2 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Oliver Hollands | WR | 19.3 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 18.4 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.3 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 72 / inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 17.3 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 17.3 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 72 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 15.3 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 6.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 75 / inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Matthew Cottrell | HFFL | 14.5 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 13.2 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 13.1 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.6 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 57 / outside our 90% range: 96 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 13.1 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 12.2 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 10.9 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 10.7 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Lewis Young | CHB | 10.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 45 / inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 9.7 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 48 |