AFL · ROUND 17 · MCG
Richmond v Carlton
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 35
CAR to win, 90% chance
RIC 10%90% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 2
HIT Actual margin 2 · 32.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | CHB | 24.3 | 20.4 to 28.2 | 14.3 to 34.3 | 97% | 83% | 53% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 23.5 | 19.6 to 27.3 | 13.6 to 33.4 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jack Ross | R | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.8 | 13.2 to 32.7 | 93% | 72% | 39% | 13% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 20.7 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.0 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 18.7 | 15.2 to 22.2 | 9.7 to 27.7 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 18.3 | 14.9 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Tom Brown | BPR | 17.8 | 14.4 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.6 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Sam Cumming | HFFL | 17.7 | 14.3 to 21.1 | 8.9 to 26.4 | 71% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.7 | 8.6 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 17.2 | 13.8 to 20.6 | 8.6 to 25.9 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 15.4 | 12.1 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.6 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 14.8 | 11.6 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 22.9 | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 14.6 | 11.5 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | INT | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Taj Hotton | RR | 13.4 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.3 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.1 to 20.4 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Rhyan Mansell | INT | 12.0 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Kye Annand | INT | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.5 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.6 | 2.3 to 15.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 8.2 | 5.7 to 10.7 | 1.7 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 30.4 | 26.1 to 34.7 | 19.4 to 41.4 | 98% | 92% | 80% | 54% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 28.1 | 24.0 to 32.3 | 17.5 to 38.8 | 96% | 89% | 70% | 37% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 24.8 | 20.8 to 28.7 | 14.7 to 34.9 | 97% | 85% | 56% | 22% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 24.0 | 20.1 to 27.8 | 14.0 to 33.9 | 97% | 82% | 51% | 19% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Nic Newman | INT | 23.4 | 19.5 to 27.2 | 13.5 to 33.2 | 94% | 75% | 41% | 13% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 22.0 | 18.3 to 25.8 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 90% | 67% | 33% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 20.6 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.0 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 20.6 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.0 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.8 | 11.0 to 29.5 | 84% | 53% | 20% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WR | 19.3 | 15.7 to 22.8 | 10.2 to 28.3 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 18.4 | 15.0 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.4 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.6 | 8.6 to 25.9 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.7 | 8.6 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | HFFL | 14.5 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 13.2 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.1 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.1 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Lewis Young | CHB | 10.3 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.4 | 2.8 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |