AFL · ROUND 17 · MCG
Richmond v Carlton
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 35
CAR to win, 90% chance
RIC 10%90% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 2
HIT Actual margin 2 · 32.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | CHB | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 86% | 74% | 57% | 39% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Jack Ross | R | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 46% | 29% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 115 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Tom Brown | BPR | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Sam Cumming | HFFL | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| James Trezise | WR | 69 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 66 | 51 to 80 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Taj Hotton | RR | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 94 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Rhyan Mansell | INT | 58 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Kye Annand | INT | 46 | 33 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 45 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 99 | 83 to 115 | 59 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Nic Newman | INT | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| George Hewett | INT | 84 | 68 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Oliver Hollands | WR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 53% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 68 | 53 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Matthew Cottrell | HFFL | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 57 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 96 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 49 | 35 to 62 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Lewis Young | CHB | 45 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |