AFL · ROUND 17 · MCG
Richmond v Carlton
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 35
CAR to win, 90% chance
RIC 10%90% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 2
HIT Actual margin 2 · 32.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Lynch | FF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 68% | 46% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rhyan Mansell | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 58% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Cumming | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ross | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kye Annand | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Taj Hotton | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Brown | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry McKay | FF | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 72% | 49% | 28% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 65% | 41% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 71% | 40% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 1.3 | 0.6 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 63% | 33% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 58% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 58% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nic Newman | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lewis Young | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |