AFL · ROUND 17 · MCG
Richmond v Carlton
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 35
CAR to win, 90% chance
RIC 10%90% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 2
HIT Actual margin 2 · 32.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Miller | FB | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 83% | 70% | 56% | 43% | 29% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 10.9 | 80% | 69% | 54% | 40% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 70% | 54% | 39% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 58% | 42% | 28% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 58% | 42% | 28% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 56% | 40% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Brown | BPR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 56% | 40% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 49% | 33% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Ross | R | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Rhyan Mansell | INT | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 3.6 | 2.0 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Cumming | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 34% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | INT | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kye Annand | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Taj Hotton | RR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Newman | INT | 6.9 | 4.8 to 9.0 | 2.2 to 11.6 | 84% | 72% | 58% | 46% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.8 to 10.8 | 79% | 67% | 53% | 37% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 65% | 51% | 36% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 6.1 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.7 to 10.5 | 77% | 63% | 49% | 34% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.8 | 69% | 57% | 42% | 30% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 66% | 54% | 39% | 26% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 61% | 44% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 72% | 54% | 38% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 65% | 47% | 33% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 58% | 42% | 28% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Sam Walsh | C | 4.3 | 2.6 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 49% | 33% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lewis Young | CHB | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 49% | 33% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 34% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 34% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 34% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |