AFL · ROUND 17 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Western Bulldogs
Fri 3 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 30
SYD to win, 87% chance
SYD 87%13% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 35
HIT Actual margin 35 · 4.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 27.5 | 23.4 to 31.6 | 16.9 to 38.0 | 95% | 88% | 67% | 33% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 25.5 | 21.6 to 29.5 | 15.3 to 35.8 | 98% | 88% | 60% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 24.7 | 20.8 to 28.6 | 14.6 to 34.8 | 97% | 85% | 55% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 24.6 | 20.6 to 28.5 | 14.5 to 34.6 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 24.6 | 20.7 to 28.5 | 14.5 to 34.7 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 21.9 | 18.2 to 25.7 | 12.3 to 31.5 | 90% | 66% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 20.4 | 16.7 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.6 | 84% | 56% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.6 to 27.5 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 18.0 | 14.6 to 21.5 | 9.2 to 26.9 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | WL | 17.8 | 14.4 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.6 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Matt Roberts | HBFL | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 16.4 | 13.1 to 19.7 | 7.9 to 24.9 | 62% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| James Rowbottom | HFFR | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.1 | 7.5 to 24.2 | 59% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Dane Rampe | INT | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 54% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFR | 13.9 | 10.8 to 17.0 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | FPL | 12.5 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| William Edwards | FB | 12.4 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.8 to 20.0 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tom Hanily | CHF | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Corey Warner | INT | 12.2 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.7 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Hayden McLean | FPR | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 8.9 | 6.3 to 11.5 | 2.3 to 15.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 27.7 | 23.6 to 31.9 | 17.1 to 38.3 | 95% | 88% | 69% | 34% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 27.3 | 23.2 to 31.4 | 16.8 to 37.8 | 95% | 87% | 65% | 31% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 25.0 | 21.1 to 29.0 | 14.9 to 35.2 | 98% | 87% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | WL | 23.7 | 19.8 to 27.6 | 13.8 to 33.6 | 96% | 81% | 49% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 23.5 | 19.7 to 27.4 | 13.7 to 33.4 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 23.1 | 19.2 to 26.9 | 13.3 to 32.8 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Joel Freijah | RR | 19.2 | 15.7 to 22.8 | 10.2 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.6 to 27.5 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | WR | 17.0 | 13.7 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.4 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPL | 15.0 | 11.8 to 18.2 | 6.8 to 23.2 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | HFFL | 14.5 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.5 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.3 to 19.2 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.3 to 19.2 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Buku Khamis | BPR | 11.6 | 8.8 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 11.3 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| James O'Donnell | FB | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 10.4 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.3 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHB | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.7 | 2.4 to 15.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 8.7 | 6.1 to 11.2 | 2.1 to 15.3 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |