AFL · ROUND 17 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Western Bulldogs
Fri 3 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 30
SYD to win, 87% chance
SYD 87%13% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 35
HIT Actual margin 35 · 4.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 58% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 107 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 52% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 130 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 52% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 92 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 131 | 85% | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 90 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 72% | 53% | 36% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Chad Warner | R | 90 | 75 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 74 | 59 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Jake Lloyd | WL | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| James Rowbottom | HFFR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Matt Roberts | HBFL | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 107 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFR | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Dane Rampe | INT | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Caiden Cleary | FPL | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Hayden McLean | FPR | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Tom Hanily | CHF | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Corey Warner | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 87 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| William Edwards | FB | 49 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 40 | 27 to 53 | 7 to 73 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 89% | 79% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Ed Richards | R | 97 | 81 to 113 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 46% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 95 | 79 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 76% | 60% | 41% | 29% | outside our 90% range: 138 |
| Tim English | RK | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 34% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Ryley Sanders | WL | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 75% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Joel Freijah | RR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 72 | 57 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 15 |
| Lachlan Bramble | WR | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Nick Coffield | BPL | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 95 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Cooper Hynes | HFFL | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Rory Lobb | CHB | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Buku Khamis | BPR | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 45 | 32 to 59 | 11 to 79 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| James O'Donnell | FB | 43 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |