AFL · ROUND 17 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Western Bulldogs
Fri 3 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 30
SYD to win, 87% chance
SYD 87%13% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 35
HIT Actual margin 35 · 4.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.3 | 0.3 to 4.5 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Hayden McLean | FPR | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 45% | 21% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 45% | 21% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Hanily | CHF | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Rowbottom | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Corey Warner | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dane Rampe | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Roberts | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| William Edwards | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 2.2 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.2 | 78% | 54% | 33% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 58% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Croft | CHF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Freijah | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James O'Donnell | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |