AFL · ROUND 17 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Adelaide Crows
Fri 3 Jul 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 29
ADE to win, 86% chance
WCE 14%86% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 25
HIT Actual margin 25 · 4.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid | RR | 24.5 | 20.6 to 28.4 | 14.5 to 34.6 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 24.1 | 20.2 to 28.0 | 14.1 to 34.1 | 97% | 82% | 52% | 19% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Tim Kelly | HFFL | 23.8 | 19.9 to 27.7 | 13.9 to 33.7 | 96% | 81% | 49% | 17% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jack Graham | HFFR | 19.1 | 15.5 to 22.6 | 10.0 to 28.1 | 78% | 41% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.5 | 10.0 to 28.0 | 77% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.7 to 27.6 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 9.4 to 27.1 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.7 | 8.6 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.4 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 54% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | INT | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 13.9 | 10.8 to 17.0 | 6.0 to 21.8 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.8 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.0 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 13.0 | 10.0 to 16.0 | 5.3 to 20.8 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 12.4 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.9 to 20.0 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 12.4 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Brady Hough | INT | 12.2 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Oliver Francou | R | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jack Hutchinson | FPR | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 10.4 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.4 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.9 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 8.5 | 5.9 to 11.0 | 1.9 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 25.2 | 21.3 to 29.2 | 15.1 to 35.4 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 24.9 | 21.0 to 28.9 | 14.8 to 35.1 | 97% | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 22.3 | 18.5 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 22.0 | 18.2 to 25.7 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 90% | 67% | 33% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.7 | 11.6 to 30.5 | 87% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.7 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | HBFL | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.5 | 10.0 to 28.0 | 77% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jake Soligo | WL | 18.2 | 14.7 to 21.7 | 9.3 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.5 | 8.4 to 25.7 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 16.6 | 13.3 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.2 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Brayden Cook | INT | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 15.7 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 24.0 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | WR | 15.7 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 24.0 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 15.0 | 11.8 to 18.2 | 6.8 to 23.1 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 15.0 | 11.8 to 18.2 | 6.8 to 23.2 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 14.7 | 11.5 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 13.6 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Taylor Walker | INT | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.4 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 8.2 | 5.7 to 10.7 | 1.7 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |