AFL · ROUND 17 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Adelaide Crows
Fri 3 Jul 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 29
ADE to win, 86% chance
WCE 14%86% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 25
HIT Actual margin 25 · 4.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 83 | 67 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Tim Kelly | HFFL | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Jack Graham | HFFR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 22 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 103 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 59 | 45 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Marcus Herbert | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Oliver Francou | R | 54 | 40 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Jack Hutchinson | FPR | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Brady Hough | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 50 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 48 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 41 | 28 to 55 | 8 to 75 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 107 | 90 to 123 | 66 to 147 | 93% | 86% | 73% | 61% | 46% | inside our 90% range: 126 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 90 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 34% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 88 | 73 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 49% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 87 | 72 to 102 | 48 to 126 | 83% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 84 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 122 | 78% | 60% | 39% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 83 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| James Peatling | RR | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 74 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | - |
| Jake Soligo | WL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | HBFL | 68 | 53 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Brayden Cook | INT | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Luke Nankervis | WR | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Taylor Walker | INT | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| James Borlase | FB | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |