AFL · ROUND 17 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Adelaide Crows
Fri 3 Jul 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 29
ADE to win, 86% chance
WCE 14%86% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 25
HIT Actual margin 25 · 4.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Waterman | FF | 2.3 | 1.4 to 3.1 | 0.2 to 4.3 | 80% | 56% | 34% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 45% | 21% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Hutchinson | FPR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brady Hough | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Graham | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Francou | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Kelly | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 68% | 46% | 24% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 68% | 46% | 24% | 12% | 5% | - |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 71% | 40% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Taylor Walker | INT | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 63% | 33% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Cook | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Soligo | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |