AFL · ROUND 17 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Adelaide Crows
Fri 3 Jul 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 29
ADE to win, 86% chance
WCE 14%86% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 25
HIT Actual margin 25 · 4.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Graham | HFFR | 6.1 | 4.2 to 7.9 | 1.9 to 10.2 | 87% | 76% | 63% | 51% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 74% | 58% | 42% | 28% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 62% | 43% | 29% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 50% | 28% | 16% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tim Kelly | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 43% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Hutchinson | FPR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 42% | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Oliver Francou | R | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Brady Hough | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Berry | INT | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 2.1 to 10.6 | 88% | 78% | 65% | 53% | 42% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 6.0 | 4.2 to 7.9 | 1.9 to 10.2 | 86% | 75% | 62% | 51% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 70% | 56% | 36% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 65% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 61% | 44% | 25% | 14% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 54% | 34% | 20% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 54% | 34% | 20% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jake Soligo | WL | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.3 to 6.7 | 50% | 28% | 16% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 42% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | WR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brayden Cook | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Taylor Walker | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |