AFL · ROUND 18 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 25
ADE to win, 83% chance
ADE 83%17% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 79
HIT Actual margin 79 · 53.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 26.9 | 22.8 to 31.0 | 16.5 to 37.4 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 26.6 | 22.6 to 30.7 | 16.2 to 37.0 | 95% | 86% | 62% | 26% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Rory Laird | INT | 24.8 | 20.9 to 28.8 | 14.7 to 34.9 | 97% | 85% | 56% | 22% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 24.7 | 20.7 to 28.6 | 14.6 to 34.7 | 97% | 85% | 55% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 23.6 | 19.7 to 27.4 | 13.7 to 33.4 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 23.4 | 19.5 to 27.2 | 13.5 to 33.2 | 93% | 74% | 41% | 13% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 21.2 | 17.5 to 24.9 | 11.7 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jake Soligo | WL | 17.9 | 14.5 to 21.4 | 9.1 to 26.8 | 71% | 28% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Brayden Cook | HBFL | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.7 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPR | 16.7 | 13.3 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.2 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 16.7 | 13.3 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.2 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Ben Keays | WR | 16.4 | 13.1 to 19.7 | 7.9 to 24.9 | 63% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.2 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPL | 14.4 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.5 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 41% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 13.5 | 10.4 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 34% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Taylor Walker | INT | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 8.5 | 5.9 to 11.0 | 1.9 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 29.7 | 25.4 to 33.9 | 18.8 to 40.6 | 97% | 91% | 77% | 48% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 27.4 | 23.3 to 31.5 | 16.9 to 37.9 | 95% | 87% | 66% | 32% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 25.5 | 21.5 to 29.5 | 15.3 to 35.8 | 98% | 88% | 60% | 26% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 24.4 | 20.5 to 28.4 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Christian Petracca | FPL | 24.0 | 20.2 to 27.9 | 14.1 to 34.0 | 97% | 82% | 52% | 19% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Touk Miller | CHF | 23.9 | 20.1 to 27.8 | 14.0 to 33.9 | 97% | 82% | 50% | 19% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 19.2 | 15.6 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.2 | 81% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | C | 19.1 | 15.6 to 22.6 | 10.1 to 28.2 | 77% | 44% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.7 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 9.4 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jai Murray | WL | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 14.5 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.5 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFL | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.0 to 22.0 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFR | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Nick Holman | WR | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.7 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Will Graham | INT | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 10.1 | 7.3 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 9.5 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.3 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 9.1 | 6.5 to 11.7 | 2.4 to 15.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 8.9 | 6.3 to 11.5 | 2.3 to 15.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Ben King | FPR | 8.2 | 5.7 to 10.7 | 1.7 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |