AFL · ROUND 18 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 25
ADE to win, 83% chance
ADE 83%17% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 79
HIT Actual margin 79 · 53.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 110 | 93 to 126 | 69 to 151 | 95% | 88% | 77% | 64% | 51% | inside our 50% range: 112 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 99 | 83 to 115 | 60 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 64% | 51% | 33% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 95 | 79 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 43% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 126 |
| Rory Laird | INT | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 37% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 92 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 131 | 85% | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | outside our 90% range: 138 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 88 | 72 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 87 | 72 to 102 | 48 to 126 | 83% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 25 |
| James Peatling | INT | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Jake Soligo | WL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Brayden Cook | HBFL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Ben Keays | WR | 71 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Zac Taylor | FPL | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Taylor Walker | INT | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 98 |
| James Borlase | FB | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 146 | 93% | 86% | 72% | 60% | 45% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 90% | 81% | 67% | 54% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 93 | 77 to 108 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Touk Miller | CHF | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 76% | 61% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Christian Petracca | FPL | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 40% | 26% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Beau Addinsall | C | 69 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFL | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 37% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFR | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Jai Murray | WL | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 95 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Nick Holman | WR | 54 | 40 to 68 | 20 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 51 | 38 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Ben King | FPR | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Will Graham | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 15 to 84 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 45 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 42 | 29 to 56 | 9 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |