AFL · ROUND 18 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 25
ADE to win, 83% chance
ADE 83%17% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 79
HIT Actual margin 79 · 53.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.1 to 3.8 | 70% | 47% | 26% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 68% | 46% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 61% | 38% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Taylor Walker | INT | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 62% | 32% | 12% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ben Keays | WR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 56% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 38% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 47% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 37% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Soligo | WL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 31% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Cook | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rory Laird | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben King | FPR | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.1 | 76% | 53% | 30% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 69% | 37% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 53% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Christian Petracca | FPL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 49% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Touk Miller | CHF | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Graham | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 31% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Murray | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Holman | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |