AFL · ROUND 18 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 25
ADE to win, 83% chance
ADE 83%17% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 79
HIT Actual margin 79 · 53.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 77% | 63% | 50% | 35% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Rory Laird | INT | 6.0 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 78% | 65% | 53% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 63% | 46% | 34% | 22% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 60% | 43% | 31% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 74% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 58% | 41% | 28% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 54% | 38% | 24% | 15% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 59% | 42% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 42% | 29% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Taylor Walker | INT | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 50% | 38% | 26% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Brayden Cook | HBFL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 50% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 47% | 31% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ben Keays | WR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 38% | 24% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 39% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPL | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 28% | 16% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 24% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Soligo | WL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 6.0 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 78% | 65% | 53% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 69% | 57% | 43% | 30% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 5.3 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 65% | 48% | 35% | 23% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 65% | 50% | 34% | 22% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 56% | 41% | 25% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 35% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ben King | FPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 39% | 23% | 14% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 23% | 13% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Touk Miller | CHF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 33% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jai Murray | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Christian Petracca | FPL | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 17% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | C | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Graham | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Holman | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |