AFL · ROUND 18 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 25
ADE to win, 83% chance
ADE 83%17% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 79
HIT Actual margin 79 · 53.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Berry | RR | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.1 | 2.0 to 10.4 | 88% | 77% | 64% | 52% | 39% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.7 to 9.9 | 85% | 74% | 61% | 49% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.7 to 7.7 | 66% | 51% | 34% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.5 to 7.2 | 65% | 47% | 27% | 15% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 53% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 54% | 33% | 19% | 11% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.7 | 50% | 28% | 16% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jake Soligo | WL | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 52% | 30% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rory Laird | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 26% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Keays | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 26% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brayden Cook | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Taylor Walker | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | R | 5.9 | 4.1 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 86% | 74% | 62% | 51% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Touk Miller | CHF | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.6 to 7.5 | 63% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 60% | 41% | 27% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | C | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 38% | 21% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 50% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Will Graham | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 38% | 21% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Christian Petracca | FPL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 42% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Holman | WR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jai Murray | WL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben King | FPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |