AFL · ROUND 18 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Essendon
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 52
BRI to win, 96% chance
BRI 96%4% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 90
HIT Actual margin 90 · 37.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 31.4 / inside our 90% range: 40.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / outside our 90% range: 13.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 102 / outside our 90% range: 153 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 29.5 / inside our 50% range: 33.0 | 0.8 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 112 / inside our 90% range: 142 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 26.2 / inside our 90% range: 32.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 100 / inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 25.9 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.3 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 98 / inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 24.7 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.0 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 98 / inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 24.3 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 6.6 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 103 / inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 22.9 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 22.9 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 88 / inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 22.7 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 20.4 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 18.8 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.8 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 79 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 18.5 / inside our 90% range: 23.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.6 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 81 / inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 16.8 / inside our 90% range: 23.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 16.1 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.1 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 15.8 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 15.2 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 13.8 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 13.5 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.5 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 13.3 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 13.2 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 75 / inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 13.1 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 12.9 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 72 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Eric Hipwood | INT | 11.7 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 29.2 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 110 / outside our 90% range: 35 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFR | 27.1 / inside our 90% range: 23.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 97 / inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Darcy Parish | R | 25.6 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.0 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 86 / inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Sam Durham | C | 23.6 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 89 / inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 22.3 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 89 / inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 19.4 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 74 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 18.8 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 71 / inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 17.6 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 75 / inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFR | 17.5 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.1 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 74 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Sullivan Robey | FPL | 17.1 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 17.1 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 75 / inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 16.7 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 16.5 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 15.3 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 71 / outside our 90% range: 27 |
| Archie Perkins | FPR | 14.3 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 12.3 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 53 / inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 11.7 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 11.5 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Isaac Kako | INT | 11.0 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 50 / inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 10.8 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 9.3 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 9.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 46 / outside our 90% range: 10 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 8.8 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 50 |