AFL · ROUND 18 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Essendon
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 52
BRI to win, 96% chance
BRI 96%4% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 90
HIT Actual margin 90 · 37.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 31.4 | 27.0 to 35.7 | 20.2 to 42.5 | 99% | 95% | 83% | 58% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 40.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 29.5 | 25.3 to 33.8 | 18.7 to 40.4 | 97% | 91% | 76% | 48% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 33.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 26.2 | 22.1 to 30.2 | 15.8 to 36.5 | 94% | 83% | 58% | 23% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 25.9 | 21.9 to 29.9 | 15.6 to 36.1 | 94% | 82% | 56% | 21% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 24.7 | 20.8 to 28.7 | 14.7 to 34.8 | 97% | 85% | 55% | 22% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 24.3 | 20.4 to 28.2 | 14.3 to 34.3 | 97% | 83% | 53% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 22.9 | 19.1 to 26.7 | 13.1 to 32.7 | 92% | 72% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 22.9 | 19.1 to 26.7 | 13.2 to 32.7 | 92% | 72% | 38% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 22.7 | 18.9 to 26.5 | 13.0 to 32.4 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.8 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 18.5 | 15.0 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.5 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 16.8 | 13.5 to 20.2 | 8.2 to 25.4 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.1 | 7.4 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.4 | 7.0 to 23.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.8 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 13.5 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 35% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 13.2 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.1 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.7 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | INT | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 29.2 | 25.0 to 33.4 | 18.4 to 40.0 | 97% | 90% | 75% | 45% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFR | 27.1 | 23.1 to 31.2 | 16.7 to 37.6 | 95% | 87% | 64% | 30% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Darcy Parish | R | 25.6 | 21.6 to 29.6 | 15.4 to 35.8 | 98% | 88% | 60% | 26% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 23.6 | 19.8 to 27.5 | 13.7 to 33.5 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 15% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 22.3 | 18.5 to 26.1 | 12.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 19.4 | 15.8 to 22.9 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.8 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.9 to 26.4 | 70% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFR | 17.5 | 14.1 to 20.9 | 8.8 to 26.2 | 69% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | FPL | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.7 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.5 | 8.4 to 25.7 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 16.7 | 13.3 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.2 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.8 | 8.0 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.6 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Archie Perkins | FPR | 14.3 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 11.7 | 8.9 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.2 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 11.5 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Isaac Kako | INT | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 9.3 | 6.7 to 12.0 | 2.5 to 16.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.6 | 2.3 to 15.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 8.8 | 6.3 to 11.4 | 2.2 to 15.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |