AFL · ROUND 18 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Essendon
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 52
BRI to win, 96% chance
BRI 96%4% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 90
HIT Actual margin 90 · 37.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 112 | 95 to 128 | 71 to 153 | 95% | 90% | 80% | 66% | 54% | inside our 90% range: 142 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 83% | 68% | 57% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 91% | 81% | 67% | 56% | 38% | outside our 90% range: 153 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 64% | 51% | 33% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 48% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 48% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 38% | 21% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 75% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 82 | 66 to 97 | 43 to 120 | 71% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 68% | 50% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 110 | 55% | 37% | 22% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Eric Hipwood | INT | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 110 | 93 to 126 | 69 to 150 | 95% | 88% | 77% | 63% | 51% | outside our 90% range: 35 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFR | 97 | 81 to 113 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 46% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Sam Durham | C | 89 | 74 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 33% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 89 | 73 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Darcy Parish | R | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFR | 74 | 59 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 27 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 50% | 36% | 20% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 68 | 53 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Sullivan Robey | FPL | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Archie Perkins | FPR | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 37% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Isaac Kako | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 49 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 45 | 32 to 59 | 11 to 79 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |