AFL · ROUND 18 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Essendon
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 52
BRI to win, 96% chance
BRI 96%4% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 90
HIT Actual margin 90 · 37.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Morris | CHF | 3.0 | 2.0 to 3.9 | 0.6 to 5.3 | 85% | 62% | 47% | 31% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 75% | 53% | 30% | 15% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 2.1 | 1.2 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 74% | 50% | 29% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 48% | 23% | 8% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 51% | 24% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 29% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 29% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 33% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 47% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 44% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 36% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 42% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 2.2 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 77% | 54% | 32% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 45% | 20% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 42% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archie Perkins | FPR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 37% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 29% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Kako | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 23% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Parish | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |