AFL · ROUND 18 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Essendon
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 52
BRI to win, 96% chance
BRI 96%4% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 90
HIT Actual margin 90 · 37.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Andrews | FB | 7.1 | 5.0 to 9.2 | 2.3 to 11.9 | 85% | 73% | 61% | 49% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 6.8 | 4.7 to 8.9 | 2.1 to 11.5 | 84% | 72% | 58% | 45% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 10.9 | 81% | 69% | 54% | 40% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.8 to 10.8 | 78% | 67% | 52% | 37% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 69% | 51% | 36% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 23% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 61% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 21% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 60% | 44% | 30% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 59% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 55% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 54% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 31% | 20% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 49% | 32% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 38% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 50% | 34% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 41% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 41% | 26% | 16% | 10% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 32% | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 29% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Redman | CHB | 5.9 | 3.9 to 7.8 | 1.5 to 10.2 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 37% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.3 to 9.8 | 68% | 56% | 41% | 29% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 63% | 46% | 33% | 22% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 67% | 47% | 33% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 66% | 47% | 33% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 57% | 41% | 28% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 54% | 39% | 25% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 58% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Archie Perkins | FPR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 41% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 43% | 30% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 43% | 30% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 43% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Darcy Parish | R | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 30% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 32% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | FPL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Kako | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |