AFL · ROUND 18 · MCG
Carlton v Hawthorn
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 2
HAW to win, 53% chance
CAR 47%53% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 64
HIT Actual margin 64 · 61.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 31.0 / inside our 50% range: 35.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 108 / inside our 50% range: 114 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 27.5 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 104 / inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 26.1 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 92 / inside our 50% range: 78 |
| George Hewett | INT | 26.0 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 95 / outside our 90% range: 27 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 26.0 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.2 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 103 / inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 24.1 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 90 / inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 23.5 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / outside our 90% range: 14.0 | 93 / outside our 90% range: 135 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 21.7 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Oliver Hollands | WR | 19.9 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.7 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 84 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 19.7 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 85 / inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 19.6 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 17.9 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 17.4 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 15.6 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 84 / inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 14.8 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.8 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 14.7 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 13.7 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 13.7 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 12.9 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 72 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 12.3 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 72 / outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 11.5 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 52 / inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Flynn Riley | RK | 11.0 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 9.9 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 58 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 27.5 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 97 / inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 24.9 / outside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 91 / outside our 90% range: 37 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 23.5 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.5 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 83 / inside our 90% range: 101 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 23.2 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 92 / inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Will Day | C | 23.0 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 22.6 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.2 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 89 / inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 22.1 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 84 / inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 21.4 / outside our 90% range: 31.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.8 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 20.6 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 84 / inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Jack Ginnivan | WR | 20.2 / inside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.9 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 86 / inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 20.0 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 19.8 / inside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 86 / inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 18.5 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 75 / inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFR | 15.2 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 13.3 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.8 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 79 / outside our 90% range: 129 |
| Noah Mraz | CHB | 12.2 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 11.6 / outside our 90% range: 20.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 11.6 / outside our 90% range: 22.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 11.2 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Oliver Greeves | HFFR | 10.2 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 50 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 10.2 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 49 / inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Matt Hill | FPL | 9.7 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.7 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 51 / inside our 90% range: 23 |
| William McCabe | INT | 8.4 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 40 / inside our 90% range: 25 |