AFL · ROUND 18 · MCG
Carlton v Hawthorn
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 2
HAW to win, 53% chance
CAR 47%53% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 64
HIT Actual margin 64 · 61.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 31.0 | 26.7 to 35.3 | 19.9 to 42.1 | 98% | 93% | 81% | 56% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 35.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 27.5 | 23.4 to 31.6 | 17.0 to 38.1 | 95% | 88% | 67% | 33% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 26.1 | 22.0 to 30.1 | 15.7 to 36.4 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 22% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 26.0 | 22.0 to 30.1 | 15.7 to 36.4 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 22% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 26.0 | 21.9 to 30.0 | 15.7 to 36.3 | 94% | 82% | 56% | 22% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 24.1 | 20.2 to 28.0 | 14.1 to 34.1 | 97% | 82% | 52% | 19% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 23.5 | 19.6 to 27.3 | 13.6 to 33.3 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 21.7 | 18.0 to 25.4 | 12.2 to 31.3 | 89% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WR | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 19.7 | 16.1 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.8 | 83% | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 19.6 | 16.0 to 23.1 | 10.4 to 28.7 | 83% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 17.9 | 14.5 to 21.4 | 9.1 to 26.8 | 71% | 28% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 15.6 | 12.3 to 18.8 | 7.3 to 23.9 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 14.8 | 11.6 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 14.7 | 11.5 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.5 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.7 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Flynn Riley | RK | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 27.5 | 23.4 to 31.6 | 16.9 to 38.0 | 95% | 87% | 67% | 33% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 24.9 | 20.9 to 28.8 | 14.7 to 35.0 | 97% | 85% | 57% | 23% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 23.5 | 19.7 to 27.4 | 13.7 to 33.4 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 23.2 | 19.4 to 27.1 | 13.4 to 33.1 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Will Day | C | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.8 | 13.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 72% | 39% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 22.6 | 18.9 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.4 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 22.1 | 18.3 to 25.8 | 12.5 to 31.7 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 21.4 | 17.7 to 25.1 | 11.9 to 30.9 | 88% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 20.6 | 16.9 to 24.2 | 11.2 to 29.9 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | WR | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.8 | 11.0 to 29.5 | 84% | 53% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 19.8 | 16.2 to 23.4 | 10.6 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 18.5 | 15.0 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.4 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFR | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.4 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Noah Mraz | CHB | 12.2 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Oliver Greeves | HFFR | 10.2 | 7.4 to 12.9 | 3.1 to 17.2 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 10.2 | 7.4 to 12.9 | 3.2 to 17.2 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Matt Hill | FPL | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.4 | 2.8 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| William McCabe | INT | 8.4 | 5.9 to 11.0 | 1.9 to 14.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |