AFL · ROUND 18 · MCG
Carlton v Hawthorn
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 2
HAW to win, 53% chance
CAR 47%53% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 64
HIT Actual margin 64 · 61.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 108 | 92 to 125 | 68 to 149 | 94% | 88% | 76% | 63% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 114 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 84% | 70% | 58% | 41% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 83% | 68% | 57% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| George Hewett | INT | 95 | 79 to 111 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 76% | 60% | 42% | 29% | outside our 90% range: 27 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 86% | 73% | 58% | 39% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 135 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 84% | 71% | 56% | 37% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 41% | 26% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Oliver Hollands | WR | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 75% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 72 | 57 to 86 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 72 | 57 to 86 | 35 to 108 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 71 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Flynn Riley | RK | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 87 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 97 | 81 to 113 | 57 to 136 | 89% | 78% | 64% | 46% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 92 | 76 to 107 | 53 to 131 | 85% | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 91 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 72% | 54% | 37% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 37 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 89 | 74 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Will Day | C | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 46% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Jack Ginnivan | WR | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 46% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 84 | 68 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 79 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 129 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 68 | 53 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFR | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Noah Mraz | CHB | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Matt Hill | FPL | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Oliver Greeves | HFFR | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| William McCabe | INT | 40 | 27 to 54 | 7 to 73 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |