AFL · ROUND 18 · MCG
Carlton v Hawthorn
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 2
HAW to win, 53% chance
CAR 47%53% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 64
HIT Actual margin 64 · 61.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 61% | 38% | 19% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 48% | 22% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 49% | 24% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 58% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 28% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 35% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 42% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 37% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Flynn Riley | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 2.8 | 1.9 to 3.8 | 0.6 to 5.1 | 84% | 60% | 45% | 28% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 2.1 | 1.2 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 74% | 51% | 30% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.6 | 0.8 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 63% | 32% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 53% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | WR | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 54% | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Hill | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 47% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Greeves | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 23% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Day | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 31% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| William McCabe | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 21% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Mraz | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |