AFL · ROUND 18 · MCG
Carlton v Hawthorn
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 2
HAW to win, 53% chance
CAR 47%53% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 64
HIT Actual margin 64 · 61.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 6.9 | 4.8 to 9.0 | 2.2 to 11.6 | 84% | 72% | 58% | 46% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.5 | 77% | 63% | 50% | 35% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 72% | 59% | 44% | 32% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 60% | 43% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 72% | 54% | 38% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 69% | 50% | 35% | 24% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 67% | 47% | 33% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WR | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 19% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 55% | 39% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 50% | 30% | 19% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 48% | 36% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 43% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 47% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | C | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 48% | 33% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 29% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 37% | 22% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Flynn Riley | RK | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Sicily | BPL | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 11.0 | 81% | 69% | 54% | 40% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.7 | 78% | 66% | 51% | 36% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 61% | 47% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 68% | 51% | 37% | 24% | 16% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 61% | 44% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 58% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | WR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 57% | 41% | 25% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 46% | 33% | 22% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 4.2 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 45% | 30% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 43% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Mraz | CHB | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 46% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 36% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 54% | 37% | 25% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 44% | 30% | 19% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 31% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Day | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 34% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 34% | 20% | 9% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Greeves | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| William McCabe | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matt Hill | FPL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 18% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |