AFL · ROUND 18 · MCG
Carlton v Hawthorn
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 2
HAW to win, 53% chance
CAR 47%53% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 64
HIT Actual margin 64 · 61.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 67% | 49% | 34% | 23% | 17% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 4.2 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 67% | 54% | 35% | 24% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Walsh | C | 4.2 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 67% | 54% | 35% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 49% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 37% | 20% | 12% | 6% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 38% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Flynn Riley | RK | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Day | C | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 1.0 to 8.4 | 71% | 54% | 39% | 26% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 4.2 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 67% | 54% | 35% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 65% | 49% | 27% | 16% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 61% | 41% | 24% | 16% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 43% | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 39% | 23% | 13% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | WR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 36% | 22% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 35% | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Matt Hill | FPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 21% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Greeves | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 21% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| William McCabe | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 21% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Mraz | CHB | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |