AFL · ROUND 18 · MARVEL STADIUM
Collingwood v North Melbourne
Fri 10 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 22
COL to win, 79% chance
COL 79%21% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 4
HIT Actual margin 4 · 17.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 32.2 | 27.8 to 36.6 | 20.9 to 43.5 | 99% | 96% | 85% | 63% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 26.0 | 22.0 to 30.0 | 15.7 to 36.3 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 22% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | C | 25.8 | 21.8 to 29.8 | 15.5 to 36.1 | 98% | 88% | 62% | 30% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 23.4 | 19.6 to 27.3 | 13.6 to 33.3 | 94% | 75% | 41% | 14% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 22.7 | 18.9 to 26.5 | 13.0 to 32.4 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | HFFL | 21.5 | 17.8 to 25.2 | 12.0 to 31.0 | 89% | 63% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | INT | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.5 | 87% | 60% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 19.2 | 15.7 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Ned Long | RR | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WL | 18.7 | 15.2 to 22.2 | 9.7 to 27.7 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.6 to 27.5 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 18.5 | 15.0 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.4 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFL | 18.2 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 9.4 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 17.2 | 13.8 to 20.6 | 8.5 to 25.9 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | FPL | 14.8 | 11.6 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 22.9 | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 14.3 | 11.1 to 17.4 | 6.2 to 22.3 | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Sam Swadling | CHF | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Billy Frampton | INT | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Liam Puncher | BPR | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FF | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 8.2 | 5.7 to 10.7 | 1.7 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 31.9 | 27.6 to 36.3 | 20.7 to 43.2 | 99% | 96% | 84% | 61% | 33% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 29.1 | 24.9 to 33.3 | 18.3 to 39.9 | 97% | 90% | 74% | 44% | 17% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 27.8 | 23.7 to 32.0 | 17.2 to 38.4 | 95% | 88% | 69% | 35% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 27.3 | 23.2 to 31.4 | 16.8 to 37.8 | 95% | 87% | 65% | 31% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 23.5 | 19.6 to 27.3 | 13.6 to 33.3 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 21.7 | 18.0 to 25.4 | 12.1 to 31.2 | 89% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 21.0 | 17.4 to 24.7 | 11.6 to 30.5 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 6% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 20.9 | 17.3 to 24.6 | 11.5 to 30.4 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 19.7 | 16.1 to 23.3 | 10.5 to 28.9 | 83% | 52% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 16.8 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.3 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.8 | 8.0 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.4 | 6.9 to 23.4 | 45% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 14.8 | 11.6 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.9 | 49% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 14.6 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 14.4 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.5 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 13.5 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.3 | 34% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 11.5 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 14% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 10.3 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Zac Banch | HFFR | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.8 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Matt Whitlock | INT | 9.4 | 6.7 to 12.0 | 2.6 to 16.2 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |