AFL · ROUND 18 · MARVEL STADIUM
Collingwood v North Melbourne
Fri 10 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 22
COL to win, 79% chance
COL 79%21% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 4
HIT Actual margin 4 · 17.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 113 | 96 to 129 | 72 to 154 | 95% | 90% | 81% | 67% | 56% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 48% | 32% | outside our 90% range: 144 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 90 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 34% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Scott Pendlebury | C | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Jordan De Goey | HFFL | 88 | 72 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 46% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 121 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Ned Long | RR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Patrick Lipinski | INT | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFL | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 39% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Lachie Schultz | FPL | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 110 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 66 | 51 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 64 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 23 |
| Daniel McStay | FF | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Sam Swadling | CHF | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Billy Frampton | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Liam Puncher | BPR | 49 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 49 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 45 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 121 | 104 to 137 | 79 to 162 | 98% | 95% | 89% | 79% | 66% | inside our 50% range: 124 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 110 | 93 to 126 | 69 to 151 | 95% | 88% | 77% | 64% | 51% | outside our 90% range: 58 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 108 | 91 to 124 | 67 to 148 | 93% | 87% | 75% | 62% | 48% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 108 | 91 to 124 | 67 to 148 | 93% | 87% | 75% | 62% | 48% | outside our 90% range: 63 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 137 | 90% | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | outside our 90% range: 146 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 90 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 72% | 53% | 36% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 49% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 62% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 121 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 84 | 68 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 68% | 50% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 77 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 72 | 57 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 15 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 19 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Zac Banch | HFFR | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Matt Whitlock | INT | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |