AFL · ROUND 18 · MARVEL STADIUM
Collingwood v North Melbourne
Fri 10 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 22
COL to win, 79% chance
COL 79%21% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 4
HIT Actual margin 4 · 17.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 65% | 41% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | FPL | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 71% | 41% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 62% | 32% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 36% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 40% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Swadling | CHF | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 53% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 35% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Long | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 29% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Puncher | BPR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Billy Frampton | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Larkey | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 76% | 53% | 30% | 15% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 69% | 38% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 1.6 | 0.8 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 63% | 33% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 53% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 32% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Banch | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 27% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 24% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Whitlock | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |