AFL · ROUND 18 · MARVEL STADIUM
Collingwood v North Melbourne
Fri 10 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 22
COL to win, 79% chance
COL 79%21% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 4
HIT Actual margin 4 · 17.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 6.0 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 78% | 65% | 53% | 39% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 5.9 | 3.9 to 7.8 | 1.5 to 10.2 | 77% | 64% | 48% | 37% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.8 | 1.5 to 10.2 | 76% | 63% | 48% | 36% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Billy Frampton | INT | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 69% | 52% | 36% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 72% | 55% | 38% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 64% | 46% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | HFFL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 57% | 41% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 55% | 39% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 51% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | INT | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 53% | 37% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 53% | 36% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | FPL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 38% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | C | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 39% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ned Long | RR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Swadling | CHF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 22% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 27% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Puncher | BPR | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Parker | BPR | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 1.9 to 11.1 | 82% | 69% | 55% | 41% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.4 | 1.8 to 10.9 | 80% | 68% | 53% | 39% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.8 | 1.5 to 10.2 | 76% | 63% | 48% | 36% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 71% | 58% | 44% | 31% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 58% | 41% | 28% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 55% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 56% | 41% | 25% | 15% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 52% | 33% | 21% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 46% | 28% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 53% | 37% | 25% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 38% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 41% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 41% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 38% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 48% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 38% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 35% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Whitlock | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zac Banch | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 19% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |