AFL · ROUND 18 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Sydney Swans
Thu 9 Jul 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 2
FRE to win, 53% chance
FRE 53%47% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 38
HIT Actual margin 38 · 36.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 27.3 | 23.2 to 31.4 | 16.8 to 37.8 | 95% | 87% | 65% | 32% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 26.3 | 22.3 to 30.3 | 15.9 to 36.6 | 95% | 84% | 58% | 24% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 24.4 | 20.5 to 28.3 | 14.3 to 34.4 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 23.4 | 19.6 to 27.3 | 13.6 to 33.3 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 23.2 | 19.3 to 27.0 | 13.4 to 33.0 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 22.1 | 18.3 to 25.8 | 12.4 to 31.7 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 21.8 | 18.1 to 25.5 | 12.2 to 31.4 | 90% | 65% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 18.2 | 14.7 to 21.6 | 9.3 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.1 | 8.9 to 26.4 | 71% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.8 to 26.3 | 70% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | WR | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.7 | 8.6 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 17.0 | 13.7 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.7 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.5 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 13.4 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.5 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 13.2 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 11.3 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.5 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 9.1 | 6.5 to 11.7 | 2.4 to 15.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.5 | 5.0 to 9.9 | 1.2 to 13.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 27.3 | 23.2 to 31.4 | 16.8 to 37.9 | 95% | 87% | 65% | 32% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 25.9 | 21.9 to 29.9 | 15.6 to 36.2 | 94% | 82% | 56% | 21% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 24.9 | 20.9 to 28.8 | 14.7 to 35.0 | 97% | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 24.8 | 20.8 to 28.7 | 14.7 to 34.9 | 97% | 85% | 55% | 22% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 24.3 | 20.4 to 28.2 | 14.3 to 34.3 | 97% | 83% | 53% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 22.1 | 18.4 to 25.9 | 12.5 to 31.8 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 19.1 | 15.5 to 22.6 | 10.0 to 28.1 | 77% | 41% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 18.0 | 14.6 to 21.5 | 9.2 to 26.8 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 17.8 | 14.4 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.6 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 17.2 | 13.8 to 20.6 | 8.5 to 25.9 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 16.3 | 13.0 to 19.6 | 7.8 to 24.8 | 61% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| James Rowbottom | HFFR | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFL | 14.6 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 47% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 14.3 | 11.1 to 17.4 | 6.2 to 22.3 | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFR | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.0 to 22.0 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.4 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.5 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| William Edwards | FB | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.0 | 3.3 to 17.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Hayden McLean | FPR | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.7 | 2.3 to 15.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 8.1 | 5.6 to 10.6 | 1.7 to 14.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |