AFL · ROUND 18 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Sydney Swans
Thu 9 Jul 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 2
FRE to win, 53% chance
FRE 53%47% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 38
HIT Actual margin 38 · 36.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 147 | 93% | 86% | 73% | 60% | 46% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 89% | 79% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 133 | 86% | 75% | 59% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 90 | 75 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 53% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 87 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 84 | 69 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | WR | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 37% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 61 | 47 to 76 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 22 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 48 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 42 | 29 to 56 | 9 to 75 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 83% | 68% | 57% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 101 | 85 to 118 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 54% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 64% | 51% | 33% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 75% | 60% | 40% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Chad Warner | R | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 75% | 60% | 40% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 92 | 76 to 107 | 53 to 131 | 85% | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| James Rowbottom | HFFR | 70 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 50% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 66 | 51 to 80 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 65 | 50 to 79 | 29 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFL | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFR | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Hayden McLean | FPR | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| William Edwards | FB | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 40 | 27 to 53 | 7 to 73 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 37 | 24 to 50 | 4 to 69 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: -3 |