AFL · ROUND 18 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Sydney Swans
Thu 9 Jul 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 2
FRE to win, 53% chance
FRE 53%47% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 38
HIT Actual margin 38 · 36.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 2.2 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.2 | 77% | 54% | 32% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 77% | 54% | 31% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.1 to 3.8 | 70% | 47% | 26% | 13% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 25% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 39% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 30% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 41% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.2 | 0.3 to 4.4 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hayden McLean | FPR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 53% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 58% | 30% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 60% | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 60% | 24% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Rowbottom | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 29% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 28% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 21% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| William Edwards | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |