AFL · ROUND 18 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Sydney Swans
Thu 9 Jul 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 2
FRE to win, 53% chance
FRE 53%47% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 38
HIT Actual margin 38 · 36.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 11.0 | 81% | 69% | 54% | 40% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 6.1 | 4.1 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.5 | 77% | 63% | 49% | 34% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 47% | 35% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 69% | 50% | 35% | 24% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 54% | 39% | 25% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 57% | 41% | 25% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 33% | 22% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 53% | 37% | 25% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 52% | 35% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 53% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 49% | 34% | 23% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 37% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 39% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 29% | 19% | 11% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 22% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | WR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 18% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 15% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.8 to 10.7 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 37% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 71% | 58% | 43% | 31% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 69% | 51% | 35% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 55% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 52% | 35% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 42% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 41% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 42% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFL | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 43% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 43% | 28% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hayden McLean | FPR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 31% | 21% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| William Edwards | FB | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 26% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 19% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Rowbottom | HFFR | 1.7 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |