AFL · ROUND 18 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Geelong Cats
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 9
GEE to win, 64% chance
GWS 36%64% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 13
MISS Actual margin 13 · 22.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 30.6 | 26.3 to 34.9 | 19.6 to 41.7 | 98% | 93% | 80% | 55% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 36.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 30.1 | 25.8 to 34.4 | 19.1 to 41.1 | 98% | 91% | 79% | 51% | 20% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 28.5 | 24.3 to 32.7 | 17.8 to 39.2 | 97% | 89% | 72% | 39% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 22.2 | 18.5 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Toby Greene | CHF | 21.0 | 17.3 to 24.7 | 11.6 to 30.4 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 6% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 20.3 | 16.7 to 23.9 | 11.0 to 29.6 | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 17.5 | 14.1 to 20.9 | 8.8 to 26.2 | 69% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 17.0 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.4 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Toby Bedford | RR | 16.6 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFL | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.2 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 57% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | INT | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.7 to 23.1 | 51% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 14.5 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.5 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.2 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 11.0 | 8.1 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPL | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Harrison Oliver | INT | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.7 | 14% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | HFFR | 8.8 | 6.3 to 11.4 | 2.2 to 15.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 31.1 | 26.8 to 35.5 | 20.0 to 42.2 | 98% | 93% | 81% | 57% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 29.0 | 24.8 to 33.2 | 18.2 to 39.8 | 97% | 89% | 74% | 44% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 22.9 | 19.1 to 26.7 | 13.2 to 32.7 | 92% | 72% | 38% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 22.5 | 18.7 to 26.3 | 12.8 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WR | 21.5 | 17.8 to 25.2 | 12.0 to 31.0 | 88% | 63% | 27% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Tom Atkins | INT | 19.7 | 16.2 to 23.3 | 10.6 to 28.9 | 83% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 19.1 | 15.6 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.2 | 81% | 48% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | HFFL | 18.0 | 14.6 to 21.4 | 9.2 to 26.8 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 17.3 | 14.0 to 20.7 | 8.7 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPR | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.7 | 8.6 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.5 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 15.8 | 12.6 to 19.1 | 7.5 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 15.7 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Sam De Koning | RK | 15.5 | 12.3 to 18.7 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 49% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | HBFR | 15.3 | 12.0 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 13.6 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 13.1 | 10.0 to 16.1 | 5.3 to 20.8 | 33% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.1 to 20.4 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.4 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 11.3 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 11.1 | 8.2 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |