AFL · ROUND 18 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Geelong Cats
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 9
GEE to win, 64% chance
GWS 36%64% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 13
MISS Actual margin 13 · 22.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 102 | 85 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 90% | 81% | 66% | 54% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 54% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 89% | 79% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 118 |
| Toby Greene | CHF | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 62% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 112 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 58% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 134 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Toby Bedford | RR | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFL | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPL | 65 | 50 to 79 | 29 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Phoenix Gothard | INT | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 61 | 47 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 57 | 42 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 53 | 39 to 67 | 19 to 88 | 21% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 93 |
| Riley Hamilton | HFFR | 47 | 33 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 44 | 30 to 58 | 10 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Harrison Oliver | INT | 43 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 147 | 93% | 86% | 73% | 60% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 120 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 53% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 118 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WR | 83 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 77% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 40 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 76 | 61 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | HFFL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 130 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPR | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Sam De Koning | RK | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Tom Atkins | INT | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 65 | 50 to 79 | 29 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Mark O'Connor | HBFR | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | - |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 95 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 20 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 52 | 38 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 12 |