AFL · ROUND 18 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Geelong Cats
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 9
GEE to win, 64% chance
GWS 36%64% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 13
MISS Actual margin 13 · 22.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Stringer | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 76% | 53% | 31% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Greene | CHF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 76% | 53% | 31% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPL | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 68% | 46% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 43% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | INT | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 52% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Toby Bedford | RR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 36% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 31% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Oliver | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 2.2 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.2 | 78% | 54% | 32% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 68% | 46% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 58% | 29% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | HFFL | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 58% | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 63% | 33% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 61% | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 39% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 35% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Atkins | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam De Koning | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |