AFL · ROUND 18 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Geelong Cats
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 9
GEE to win, 64% chance
GWS 36%64% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 13
MISS Actual margin 13 · 22.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 76% | 61% | 44% | 30% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 56% | 37% | 25% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Toby Bedford | RR | 4.3 | 2.8 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.9 | 71% | 57% | 37% | 25% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 46% | 26% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 59% | 41% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 61% | 41% | 23% | 15% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 39% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Toby Greene | CHF | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 29% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harrison Oliver | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 20% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Atkins | INT | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 80% | 67% | 55% | 42% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.8 | 75% | 59% | 43% | 29% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 60% | 41% | 27% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 54% | 33% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 43% | 25% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 30% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 20% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam De Koning | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 19% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 22% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |