AFL · ROUND 18 · MCG
Melbourne v Richmond
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 40
MEL to win, 92% chance
MEL 92%8% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 46
HIT Actual margin 46 · 6.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 26.6 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 5.5 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 95 / inside our 90% range: 113 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 26.4 / inside our 90% range: 31.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.6 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 98 / inside our 90% range: 129 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 26.0 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 102 / inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 25.0 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 103 / inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 24.0 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 94 / inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 23.5 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.6 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 110 / inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 22.4 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 91 / inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 19.3 / outside our 90% range: 31.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Harvey Langford | R | 18.4 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 78 / inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 18.2 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WL | 18.0 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Daniel Turner | CHB | 17.7 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.3 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 81 / inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 17.6 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 17.1 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 17.0 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 15.8 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 15.7 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 4.8 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 117 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 15.7 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.4 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 14.7 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 11.8 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 59 / inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 11.5 / - | 1.1 / - | 4.8 / - | 2.5 / - | 64 / - |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 9.7 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 51 / inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Aidan Johnson | FPR | 9.6 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 39 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 25.0 / inside our 50% range: 26.0 | 0.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 100 / inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Dion Prestia | R | 22.3 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 86 / outside our 90% range: 46 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 21.7 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 86 / inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 21.2 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 19.4 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 77 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Tom Brown | CHB | 19.0 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Sam Cumming | HFFL | 18.6 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.6 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 74 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| James Trezise | WR | 18.4 / inside our 90% range: 23.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 18.4 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 18.3 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 78 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 16.7 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 92 / inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 16.5 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.9 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | INT | 16.3 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Taj Hotton | RR | 16.2 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 15.2 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 14.4 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 14.1 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Rhyan Mansell | HFFR | 12.5 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 12.4 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Zane Peucker | INT | 11.0 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 47 / inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 10.9 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 64 / outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 9.7 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 52 / inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 9.4 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.7 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 52 / inside our 90% range: 23 |