AFL · ROUND 18 · MCG
Melbourne v Richmond
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 40
MEL to win, 92% chance
MEL 92%8% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 46
HIT Actual margin 46 · 6.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 26.6 | 22.5 to 30.7 | 16.2 to 37.0 | 95% | 86% | 62% | 26% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 26.4 | 22.4 to 30.4 | 16.0 to 36.8 | 95% | 85% | 60% | 24% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 26.0 | 22.0 to 30.0 | 15.7 to 36.3 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 22% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 25.0 | 21.1 to 29.0 | 14.9 to 35.2 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 24.0 | 20.1 to 27.8 | 14.0 to 33.9 | 97% | 82% | 50% | 19% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 23.5 | 19.7 to 27.4 | 13.7 to 33.4 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 22.4 | 18.6 to 26.1 | 12.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 19.3 | 15.7 to 22.8 | 10.2 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Harvey Langford | R | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 18.2 | 14.7 to 21.7 | 9.3 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WL | 18.0 | 14.6 to 21.4 | 9.2 to 26.8 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Daniel Turner | CHB | 17.7 | 14.3 to 21.1 | 8.9 to 26.5 | 71% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.9 to 26.4 | 70% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.7 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 17.0 | 13.7 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 15.8 | 12.6 to 19.1 | 7.5 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 15.7 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 15.7 | 12.4 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.0 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 14.7 | 11.5 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.3 | 2.8 to 16.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Aidan Johnson | FPR | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 25.0 | 21.0 to 28.9 | 14.9 to 35.1 | 98% | 87% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Dion Prestia | R | 22.3 | 18.5 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 21.7 | 17.9 to 25.4 | 12.1 to 31.2 | 89% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 21.2 | 17.5 to 24.9 | 11.7 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 19.4 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Tom Brown | CHB | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.5 | 10.0 to 28.1 | 77% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Cumming | HFFL | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.7 to 27.6 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 18.4 | 15.0 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.4 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | INT | 16.3 | 13.0 to 19.6 | 7.8 to 24.8 | 62% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Taj Hotton | RR | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.8 to 24.7 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.4 | 7.0 to 23.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 14.4 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.5 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Rhyan Mansell | HFFR | 12.5 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 12.4 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.8 to 20.0 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Zane Peucker | INT | 11.0 | 8.1 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 9.7 | 7.1 to 12.4 | 2.9 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 9.4 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.6 to 16.2 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |