AFL · ROUND 18 · MCG
Melbourne v Richmond
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 40
MEL to win, 92% chance
MEL 92%8% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 46
HIT Actual margin 46 · 6.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 110 | 94 to 127 | 70 to 151 | 95% | 88% | 78% | 64% | 52% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 103 | 86 to 119 | 62 to 143 | 91% | 82% | 67% | 56% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 90% | 81% | 67% | 55% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 48% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 129 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 95 | 80 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 113 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 94 | 78 to 109 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 91 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 72% | 54% | 37% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Daniel Turner | CHB | 81 | 65 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 117 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Harvey Langford | R | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WL | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 39% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 70 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | - |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Aidan Johnson | FPR | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 51 | 37 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 139 | 88% | 78% | 64% | 51% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 37% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Dion Prestia | R | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 46% | 29% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 46 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 80% | 66% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Tom Brown | CHB | 80 | 65 to 96 | 43 to 118 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 67% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| James Trezise | WR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Sam Cumming | HFFL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 39% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Taj Hotton | RR | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Rhyan Mansell | HFFR | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | INT | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 54 | 40 to 68 | 20 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Zane Peucker | INT | 47 | 33 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |