AFL · ROUND 18 · MCG
Melbourne v Richmond
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 40
MEL to win, 92% chance
MEL 92%8% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 46
HIT Actual margin 46 · 6.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.1 | 76% | 53% | 30% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 59% | 30% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 48% | 23% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 60% | 24% | 7% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Aidan Johnson | FPR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 43% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 43% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 43% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Langford | R | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 29% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 43% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 22% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 37% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 21% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Lynch | FF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 67% | 44% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rhyan Mansell | HFFR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 46% | 21% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 46% | 22% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 60% | 24% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 33% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 29% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 46% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Cumming | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Taj Hotton | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zane Peucker | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dion Prestia | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Brown | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |