AFL · ROUND 18 · MCG
Melbourne v Richmond
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 40
MEL to win, 92% chance
MEL 92%8% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 46
HIT Actual margin 46 · 6.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Lever | FB | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 11.0 | 81% | 69% | 54% | 40% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Daniel Turner | CHB | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.8 to 10.8 | 79% | 68% | 53% | 38% | 27% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 61% | 47% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 68% | 51% | 37% | 25% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 62% | 46% | 32% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 60% | 43% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 60% | 44% | 30% | 20% | 12% | - |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 63% | 45% | 31% | 21% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 54% | 37% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 46% | 28% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WL | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 40% | 27% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harvey Langford | R | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 50% | 35% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 41% | 26% | 16% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 36% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 27% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 24% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Aidan Johnson | FPR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 18% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 29% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Miller | FB | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 50% | 38% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 71% | 53% | 37% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Brown | CHB | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 66% | 51% | 36% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 53% | 38% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 54% | 37% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 51% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 50% | 38% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 51% | 38% | 26% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 51% | 38% | 26% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rhyan Mansell | HFFR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 42% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 38% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dion Prestia | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 44% | 28% | 18% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 34% | 22% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 36% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 30% | 17% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 27% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 32% | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Cumming | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Taj Hotton | RR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zane Peucker | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |